Sea-level rise: Destruction of threatened and endangered species habitat in South Carolina

Concern for the environment has increased over the past century, and the US Congress has responded to this concern by passing legislation designed to protect the nation’s ecological biodiversity. This legislation, culminating with the Endangered Species Act of 1973, has been instrumental in defining methods for identifying and protecting endangered or threatened species and their habitats. Current legislation, however, assumes that the range of a protected species will stay constant over time. This assumption may no longer be valid, as the unprecedented increase in the number and concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has the potential to cause a global warming of 1.0–4.5°C and a sea-level rise (SLR) of 31–150 cm by the year 2100. Changes in climate of this magnitude are capable of causing shifts in the population structure and range of most animal species. This article examines the effects that SLR may have on the habitats of endangered and threatened species at three scales. At the regional scale 52 endangered or threatened plant and animal species were found to reside within 3 m of mean sea level in the coastal stages of the US Southeast. At the state level, the habitats of nine endangered or threatened animals that may be at risk from future SLR were identified. At the local level, a microscale analysis was conducted in the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina, USA, on the adverse effects that SLR may have on the habitats of the American alligator, brown pelican, loggerhead sea turtle, and wood stork. Prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA; managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems. Inc. for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400.     

VARIABILITY IN ADJUSTMENT PREFERENCES TO GROUNDWATER DEPLETION IN THE AMERICAN HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper explores the adjustments and institutions that residents of the American High Plains prefer in coping with the depletion of the High Plains (Ogallaia) aquifer. The authors identify 48 possible adjustments and report on public preferences for them as determined from a mail survey of 956 respondents in 14 counties. For purposes of analysis, the adjustments are categorized into five groups: user practices, management policies, financial incentives and disincentives, technological fixes, and other. Preferences were also determined among five levels of government to enforce each of the adjustments. Adjustments associated with user conservation practices were generally most preferred while financial incentives and disincentives were least favored. Local groundwater management agencies were the most favored level of institution to administer conservation adjustments followed by the state, county, and federal levels. The most preferred option for 20 adjustments was that no agency should be involved. Respondents in agriculturally related occupations showed less support for water conservation laws and gave greater acceptance to the continuance of existing methods. Irrigators viewed the increasing cost of lifting water as a more serious problem than the depletion of groundwater.     

NUTRIENT AND HEAVY METAL TRANSPORT CAPABILITIES OF SEDIMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Most studies of nutrient loss from small study watersheds ignore a potentially important loss transported by the suspended sediment load. We proposed that the geology and vegetation of a watershed are predictors of the nutrient and heavy metal transporting capacity of its suspended sediment. Analyses of acid-digestable and extractable nutrients showed differences for sediments derived from ponderosa pine forests in the Southwest on different geologies. These differences were similar for soil, stream bank, and stream channel material for a given site. Suspended sediment collections had nutrient concentrations similar to those of stream channel collections. Different vegetation on a given geology affected primarily the organic matter content, cation exchange capacity, total P, and levels of extractable nutrients in sediment.     

Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater

Model-based decision support systems are increasingly used to link knowledge to action for environmental decision making. How stakeholders perceive uncertainty in models and visualisations affects their perceptions of credibility, relevance and usability of these tools. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers’ evaluations of WaterSim, a dynamic water simulation model presented in an immersive decision theatre environment. Results reveal that decision makers’ understandings of uncertainty in their evaluations of decision support systems reflect both scientific and political discourse. We conclude with recommendations for design and evaluation of decision support systems that incorporate decision makers' views.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Effects of Simulated Sulphuric Acid Deposition On Calluna Vulgaris/Peat Microcosms and Associated Soil Solutions

Calluna vulgaris/peat microcosms have been used in an outdoor simulated acid rain experiment to test a series of hypotheses about sulphuric acid deposition effects upon the growth of Calluna on peat soil, namely: (1) Initially, enhanced acid input will enhance base cation and ammonium concentrations in soil solution. This may enhance uptake of these species, increasing foliar concentrations of base cations and nitrogen, and possibly foliar chlorophyll a and b concentrations. (2) If changes are induced in nutritional status, they may influence plant growth. (3) in the longer term, enhanced ammonium and base cation solubility occurring as a consequence of cation exchange reactions will lead, especially in winter months, to enhanced leaching losses. Hence any positive effects upon plant nutrition will not be sustainable. (4) the peat will acidify significantly over two years, in the shorter term primarily as a consequence of an enhanced mobile anion effect. (5) Acidification may reduce the rate of mineralisation of organic phosphorus and, in a phosphorus-deficient peat soil, this may lead to reduced foliar phosphate concentration and possibly induce phosphorus deficiency.

Most of these hypotheses were supported to some extent by the experimental results. the peat soil solution pH fell immediately in response to the acid treatments, and longer-term acidification continued progressively over the two years of the experiment. in the first year, the treatments significantly influenced the calcium, magnesium, phosphorus and nitrogen status of the leaves from Calluna new shoots, whereas in the second year calcium, potassium and phosphorus were influenced. However, in both years foliar phosphate concentration was enhanced, rather than reduced, in response to increased acid load. Foliar carbon and nitrogen concentrations fell with increasing acidity of     

Closed population estimation models and their extensions in Program MARK

Program MARK provides > 65 data types in a common configuration for the estimation of population parameters from mark-encounter data. Encounter information from live captures, live resightings, and dead recoveries can be incorporated to estimate demographic parameters. Available estimates include survival (S or ϕ), rate of population change (λ), transition rates between strata (Ψ), emigration and immigration rates, and population size (N). Although N is the parameter most often desired by biologists, N is one of the most difficult parameters to estimate precisely without bias for a geographically and demographically closed population. The set of closed population estimation models available in Program MARK incorporate time (t) and behavioral (b) variation, and individual heterogeneity (h) in the estimation of capture and recapture probabilities in a likelihood framework. The full range of models from M ₀ (null model with all capture and recapture probabilities equal) to M _tbh are possible, including the ability to include temporal, group, and individual covariates to model capture and recapture probabilities. Both the full likelihood formulation of Otis et al. (1978) and the conditional model formulation of Huggins (1989, 1991) and Alho (1990) are provided in Program MARK, and all of these models are incorporated into the robust design (Kendall et al. 1995, 1997; Kendall and Nichols 1995) and robust-design multistrata (Hestbeck et al. 1991, Brownie et al. 1993) data types. Model selection is performed with AICc (Burnham and Anderson 2002) and model averaging (Burnham and Anderson 2002) is available in Program MARK to provide estimates of N with standard error that reflect model selection uncertainty.     

Maternal response to neonatal sibling conflict in the spotted hyena, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Crocuta crocuta</Emphasis>

Among spotted hyenas, Crocuta crocuta, neonatal aggression in twins is a well-known phenomenon and serves to establish intra-litter dominance soon after birth. As the stronger more aggressive cub presumably attains dominance over its twin, intra-litter dominance presents mothers with an ideal opportunity to assess individual cub fitness and, thereafter, to selectively favor one cub over the other. This study quantified maternal response to sibling conflict in 26 sets of twins born to 16 wild-living females to determine whether mothers of different social ranks exhibited favoritism towards sons or daughters, or in the case of same-sex twins, the dominant or subordinate cub. Maternal response to sibling conflict did not vary with litter sex composition, suggesting that mothers do not favor offspring of one sex over the other. All mothers intervened when their cubs fought and sometimes punished their cubs. Higher-ranking mothers more often punished both cubs, while lower-ranking mothers were more selective and punished the dominant cub. Where sibling aggression was most extreme, rather than favor the dominant sibling, mothers of all ranks made concessions to the subordinate cub that included procuring private nursing bouts for the subordinate and temporarily housing twins in separate dens, presumably to decrease sibling conflict. These findings represent a complex example of parent–offspring conflict and support both the insurance cub hypothesis and resource tracking hypothesis that mothers endeavor to keep all offspring alive for as long as possible in the event that the dominant sibling dies or that resources provide for the rearing of twins. This contribution is part of the special issue “Sibling competition and cooperation in mammals” (guest editors: Robyn Hudson and Fritz Trillmich).     

Do great tits rely on inadvertent social information from blue tits? A habitat selection experiment

Sympatric species sharing requirements are competitors, but recent evidence suggests that heterospecifics may also be used as a source of information. The heterospecific habitat copying hypothesis proposes that individuals of one species might use information inadvertently produced by the breeding performance of individuals of other species to assess habitat quality whenever the two species share needs. In this study, we provide the first experimental test of this hypothesis by examining whether the manipulated reproductive success of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is used as heterospecific inadvertent social information (ISI) in breeding-habitat selection by sympatric great tits (Parus major). The reproductive success of blue tits was manipulated 1year at the scale of patches by transferring nestlings from decreased to increased patches. No evidence was found of great tits using the reproductive success of blue tits as a source of heterospecific ISI. However, dispersal decisions by adult great tits correlated with information on con- and heterospecific densities, which constitute other sources of ISI. As density and breeding performance are tightly intertwined forms of information, the difficulty in distinguishing between them might lead great tits to use heterospecific ISI more in the form of density than breeding performance when making dispersal decisions.     

Motivating children's cooperation to conserve forests

Forests are essential common-pool resources. Understanding children's and adolescents’ motivations for conservation is critical to improving conservation education. In 2 experiments, we investigated 1086 school-aged children and adolescents (6–16 years old) from the United States, China, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Testing participants in groups, we assessed their motivation for conservation based on collective-risk common-pool goods games in which they were threatened with losing their endowment unless the group donation exceeded a threshold needed to maintain the forest. Extrinsic motivations, rather than intrinsic, tended to lead to successful cooperation to maintain a forest. Certainty of losing individual payoffs significantly boosted successful cooperative conservation efforts across cultures (success rates were 90.63% and 74.19% in the 2 risk-extrinsic conditions, and 43.75% in the control condition). In U.S. participants, 2 extrinsic incentives, priming discussions of the value of forests and delay of payoffs as punishment, also increased success of cooperative conservation (success rates were 97.22% and 76.92% in the 2 extrinsic-incentive conditions, and 29.19% and 30.77% in the 2 control conditions). Conservation simulations, like those we used, may allow educators to encourage forest protection by leading groups to experience successful cooperation and the extrinsic incentives needed to motivate forest conservation.